Minggu, 28 Desember 2014

? PDF Ebook Fisher, Neyman, and the Creation of Classical Statistics, by Erich L. Lehmann

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Fisher, Neyman, and the Creation of Classical Statistics, by Erich L. Lehmann

Fisher, Neyman, and the Creation of Classical Statistics, by Erich L. Lehmann



Fisher, Neyman, and the Creation of Classical Statistics, by Erich L. Lehmann

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Fisher, Neyman, and the Creation of Classical Statistics, by Erich L. Lehmann

Classical statistical theory—hypothesis testing, estimation, and the design of experiments and sample surveys—is mainly the creation of two men:  Ronald A. Fisher (1890-1962) and Jerzy Neyman (1894-1981).  Their contributions sometimes complemented each other, sometimes occurred in parallel, and, particularly at later stages, often were in strong opposition.  The two men would not be pleased to see their names linked in this way, since throughout most of their working lives they detested each other.  Nevertheless, they worked on the same problems, and through their combined efforts created a new discipline.

This new book by E.L. Lehmann, himself a student of Neyman’s, explores the relationship between Neyman and Fisher, as well as their interactions with other influential statisticians, and the statistical history they helped create together. Lehmann uses direct correspondence and original papers to recreate an historical account of the creation of the Neyman-Pearson Theory as well as Fisher’s dissent, and other important statistical theories.

  • Sales Rank: #473327 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2011-07-25
  • Released on: 2011-07-25
  • Format: Kindle eBook

Review

From the reviews:

“I enjoyed reading about the Human traits of the founders of modern classical statistics. The author put a lot of work into finding and citing the writings from Fisher and Neyman. … This is a well done book that I recommend reading. I also think that it would make a great graphic novel.” (Cats and Dogs with Data, maryannedata.wordpress.com, August, 2013)

“It provides a historical account of the development of classical statistics over a period covering approximately the first half of the twentieth century … . The purported aim of this book is to ‘trace the creation of classical statistics, and to show that it was principally the work of two men, Fisher and Neyman’ … . it has been reasonably successful in achieving this. … I would recommend this book to those who have a serious interest in the history of statistics … .” (Martin Griffiths, The Mathematical Gazette, Vol. 97 (538), March, 2013)

From the Back Cover

Classical statistical theory―hypothesis testing, estimation, and the design of experiments and sample surveys―is mainly the creation of two men:  Ronald A. Fisher (1890-1962) and Jerzy Neyman (1894-1981).  Their contributions sometimes complemented each other, sometimes occurred in parallel, and, particularly at later stages, often were in strong opposition.  The two men would not be pleased to see their names linked in this way, since throughout most of their working lives they detested each other.  Nevertheless, they worked on the same problems, and through their combined efforts created a new discipline.

This new book by E.L. Lehmann, himself a student of Neyman’s, explores the relationship between Neyman and Fisher, as well as their interactions with other influential statisticians, and the statistical history they helped create together. Lehmann uses direct correspondence and original papers to recreate an historical account of the creation of the Neyman-Pearson Theory as well as Fisher’s dissent, and other important statistical theories.

About the Author

Erich L. Lehmann (1917-2009) was Professor Emeritus of Statistics at the University of California at Berkeley. He was also a member of the American and National Academies, an Editor of the Annals of Mathematical Statistics, and President of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. He held honorary degrees from the Universities of Chicago and Leiden, and was awarded the Wilks and Noether prizes. He was also the author of Testing Statistical Hypotheses, Theory of Point Estimation, and Elements of Large-Sample Theory, all published by Springer.

Most helpful customer reviews

18 of 22 people found the following review helpful.
somewhat interesting but not quite what I'd hoped for
By John K
As a statistics teacher I thought this book sounded interesting, delving into the history behind many of the now standard methods of inference from the point of view of Neyman and Fischer back in the 20's and 30's. But for me this book is almost too heavy on just discussing the vagaries of how their views differed without a bit more actual math to show how they each felt things like significance/hypothesis tests should be done. Rare is the math book where someone calls for MORE math to be included, but I'm halfway through the book (admittedly not all finished) and would like to better see how these two actually DID their tests to be able to compare to how I teach it today. Much of the writing refers to actual letters and communications from the statisticians themselves and then the author of the book tries to summarize the gist of what they were writing about, debating, how their views differed, etc. I guess I'd like the book to have more clearly showed how what is taken as the "standard" method for doing, say, a 1 or 2 sample T test today differs from one, or both, of Neyman's or Fischer's view of how it should be done with actual examples and numbers. Maybe this would be clearer to someone who already better knows how they differed in the first place and just wants to read about how these early statisticians thought about these ideas in their infancy.

13 of 16 people found the following review helpful.
Disappointing Kindle (con)version
By Ronald P.
The kindle format of this book unfortunately does not render well the equations. It is unfortunate to see that symbols have accents floating around in the text, or that symbols are rendered differently on whether they appear inline or as a standalone equation object (different fonts are used). With today's fonts and electronic typesetting, and knowing that the Kindle is designed for high resolution text rendering, this is really substandard. I would highly recommend the editor of the Kindle version to spend more time on the typesetting!

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Erich Lehmann's marvelous last book
By Howard Wainer
Erich Lehmann's (1917-2009) marvelous last book is a guided tour of how some of the most important ideas of 20th century statistics were developed. He accomplishes this tour by carefully extracting details from the books, papers and correspondence of three legendary statisticians: R. A. Fisher (1890-1962), Egon Pearson (1895-1980) and Jerzy Neyman (1894-1981). These annotated excerpts provide, in the voices of their developers, a step-by-step account of the birth of many of the statistical ideas that we all now take for granted.

To understand what makes this book so special it may help to return to the evening of May 29, 1832. For most of this night the remarkable French mathematician Évariste Galois (October 25, 1811 - May 31, 1832) sat at a table in Paris and wrote a long letter to his friend Auguste Chevalier. The letter was accompanied by three rough manuscripts that together laid out the rudiments of what has come to be called Galois Group Theory. Galois did this because he was scheduled for a duel on May 30th that he feared he would not survive. Unfortunately, Galois was correct. He died on the 31st from the gunshot wound he suffered in the duel.

In his letter Galois told Chevalier to take this work and "Ask Jacobi or Gauss publicly to give their opinion of these theorems, not of their truth (for they are certainly true), but of their importance"

Neither Jacobi nor Gauss was available to go through the mass of material written at the birth of classical statistics, but fortunately Lehmann was. Some statisticians might have been able to read through all of the material that is covered in this book, but Lehmann is able to select what was important. Providing focus and emphasis, and being able to place the connections in sharp relief, requires rare talent and knowledge. I don't know how many others could have done it and I will be forever grateful that Lehmann elected to leave us with this parting gift. I am also grateful to Juliet Popper Shaffer, his wife, who, without fanfare, shepherded the manuscript through the publication gauntlet.

The book provides an up-close look at the evolution of the methodology and philosophy of the three cornerstones of modern statistics: hypothesis testing, estimation and experimental design. The initial development of each of these was the work of two men, Ronald Fisher and Jerzy Neyman. In each of these Fisher was the leader, driven by his intuition, but running beside him was Neyman. He placed Fisher's ideas on a more rigorous mathematical and logical basis, expanding their reach and occasionally correcting the great man. The path was never smooth, with forays and reversals. Their work was not, in any real sense, collaborative; they merely worked on the same problems at, more-or-less, the same time. Progress was hampered because they often used different vocabulary for almost identical concepts, e.g. what Fisher called `sensitiveness,' Neyman called `power'. In addition, what the terms meant often changed meaning over time. Although Fisher would never admit to it, insisting that he had been misunderstood.

Although Lehmann was far too polite to ever say so directly, it was clear that progress was not helped by Fisher's acerbic nature. Instead of saying that Fisher was nasty, Lehmann let's the great man speak for himself:

In a 1951 letter to Horace Gray, Fisher writes,

"Neyman is, judging by my own experience, a malicious mischief maker. Probably by now this is sufficiently realized in California."
This was provoked by Neyman's review of Fisher's Selected Papers in the Scientific Monthly (1951):

"Unfortunately, in conceptual mathematical statistics, Fisher was much less successful than in manipulatory, and of the three above concepts only one, that of a sufficient statistic, continues to be of substantial interest. The other two proved to be futile or self-congratulatory, and have been more-or-less generally abandoned."

The `other two' he referred to was the use of likelihood as a measure of confidence and fiducial inference. No one would now suggest that likelihood has been abandoned, although, in Lehmann's gentle words, "few were able to follow Fisher's fiducial argument."

Were this the only example of Fisher's difficult nature, we might be tempted to forgive him, thinking that he had been unfairly provoked. But there are many more instances with little or no provocation.

The aspect of Fisher's work that generated many such outbursts was his defense of his "fiducial argument." This was Fisher's attempt to accomplish what Bayesian methods can do, but without having to make assumptions about priors. Despite many attempts to try to understand this, I have failed, even with Lehmann's patience in placing it in context. And I am not alone. In 1955, Tukey corresponded with Fisher about his fiducial argument. In a letter dated April 22, 1955 Tukey included two examples that showed the nonuniqueness of fiducial probability.

Fisher replied on April 27th and said that there was no problem,
"...as you would see if you could ever get your bull-headed mind to stop and think."

But these are merely some tasty sidelights. The main story is one of a monumental contribution. The list of practical ideas that Fisher originated is staggering:
* Hypothesis testing (with a long list of specific procedures of which analysis of variance and covariance are but two). Prior to Fisher the choices were much more limited and often wrong (e.g. Pearson provided the incorrect number of degrees of freedom for a chi-square test). Fisher also derived the t-distribution as well as the phrase "testing for significance."
* Point estimation (again with many methods, maximum likelihood being the most prominent). Prior to Fisher the options open were least squares (with its well-known sensitivity to outliers) and Karl Pearson's Method of Moments. Neither provides the power and asymptotic optimality of Fisher's maximum likelihood. We need only compare today's relative frequency of use of the method of moments to maximum likelihood to obtain a measure of the improvement.
* Experimental design (which includes the importance of factorial designs, blocking and randomization). Prior to Fisher it was felt that experiments should change just one variable at a time. Fisher pointed out how a factorial design not only massively increased efficiency but also allowed us to find out about interactions. He also provided other short cuts like Latin and Greco-Latin Square designs and the computational details on how to analyze the data they would generate and suggestions on how to interpret those results.

It would be easy for Neyman to be lost in the glare of Fisher's brilliance, so let me mention three of his contributions; the first is the ubiquitous Neyman-Pearson theory which added optimality to the benefits that Fisher listed. Second is Neyman's remarkable 1934 paper on sampling that laid the foundation for survey sampling; it expanded Fisher's design of experiments to the important area of finite populations. And third, was his insistence on the importance of randomization in making causal inferences. This latter contribution foreshadowed Rubin's model of causal inference, but was long invisible because it was published in Polish.

Lehmann's book is a scant 93 pages. It is written at a level of technical difficulty on a par with many of the articles published in social science journals, and so there is nothing standing in the way of a delightful and informative stroll through the origins of some of the most important and influential ideas in modern statistics. I can't recommend it highly enough.

I must confess, however, that despite Lehmann's help, Fisher's fiducial argument remains out of my reach. Don Rubin has pointed out that it only seems to make sense if you say it fast.

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~~ Download Ebook Iron Butterflies: Women Transforming Themselves and the World, by Birute Regine

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Iron Butterflies: Women Transforming Themselves and the World, by Birute Regine

This inspiring and compelling narrative weaves together stories of sixty successful women from all walks of life and throughout the world. The author spent several years in eight countries interviewing dynamic female role models: businesswomen, CEOs, a Congresswoman, a governor, an ex-Prime Minister, a Pulitzer Prize finalist, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, a winemaker, artists, doctors, nurses, and many others.

The author calls these women "Iron Butterflies" because they meld a will of iron with the gentle, nurturing touch of a butterfly. With disarming candor, these women talk about their struggles, their fallibilities, and their strengths in the journey to the top of their professions. Forging their leadership from an amalgam of masculine and feminine skills, all of these Iron Butterflies have transformed themselves and in doing so they are contributing to a larger social transformation.

A key to this personal and social transformation rests in their ability to address vulnerability in themselves and those around them, and transform it into a crucible of healing, growth, and innovation. Knowing how to deal with vulnerability, in ourselves and with others, evokes feminine skills and values and is a key to the societal change so many are seeking.

Critiquing the command-and-control style of leadership, derived from the gladiator concept of male invulnerability, the author convincingly demonstrates how traditional feminine skills and values—such as inclusion, empathy, a holistic perspective, relational skills, and emotional strength—can be applied to empower more people than ever before. Like the sixty Iron Butterflies profiled, leaders in the 21st century will paradoxically embrace vulnerability and durability, creating better working and living relationships for us all.


From the Trade Paperback edition.

  • Sales Rank: #1182740 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2010-09-09
  • Released on: 2010-09-09
  • Format: Kindle eBook

From Publishers Weekly
Consultant and developmental psychologist Regine (coauthor, The Soul at Work) compiles wisdom drawn from several years of original interviews with 60 successful women around the world, including CEOs and businesswomen, U.S. Congresswoman Eddie Johnson, former Prime Minister of Canada Kim Campbell, and others whose "achievements demonstrate how feminine power is changing our businesses, our organizations and our world into better places to work and live." In flowing, occasionally dense prose, this intellectual and dynamic treatise on women in the modern workplace demonstrates convincingly how empathy, emotional and strength and an embrace of vulnerability are changing traditional, male-dominated management models. Declaring the Era of Women, Regine celebrates big picture thinkers as well as mindful feelers, a powerful message reinforced by the impressive professional biographies of each subject.
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Review
"Regine profiles 60 women from around the world in this look at modern feminism. With a nod to overlooked "herstory," in which she reminds readers of Catherine Greene's contribution to the cotton gin and Mary Pickford's role in United Artists, Regine cuts a wide swath through the political and social context of the enduring battle for gender equality. Of course, Hillary Clinton and her run for the presidency is discussed but so is Andra Douglas, whose team in the Women's Professional Football League struggles to get access to playing fields, and so is journalist Ashleigh Banfield, who suffered a sexually charged smear campaign when she criticized major media coverage of the Iraq War. Regine cites hundreds of examples of professional women judged by appearance first and ability second, and ponders everything from the sexist ways Greek mythology is taught to how men design fashion ads that negatively affect the way women see themselves. Although the metaphors become tedious (gladiators and amazons abound), the readability quotient here is high, and the personal stories are fascinating." --Booklist, Colleen Mondor

"This book is perfectly timed to give momentum to the global tipping point which recognizes that when women thrive, everyone thrives. Reading and sharing the Iron Butterflies will help earn your wings." --Lisa Witter, co-author with Lisa Chen of The She Spot: Why Women are the Market for Changing the World and How to Reach Them

"Reading Iron Butterflies made me more determined to pursue the cause of women in Afghanistan. It is true that the stories and struggles of Afghan women are different from those of our sisters in developed countries. But no matter in what level of society we are struggling, we need to keep our feminine touch in order to make a difference at the leadership level. The Iron Butterflies in this book showed great courage by penetrating men's domains with a new gift to make our world more human and more beautiful."
--Fatima Gailani, president of the Red Crescent in Afghanistan

"This intellectual and dynamic treatise on women in the modern workplace demonstrates convincingly how empathy, emotional strength and an embrace of vulnerability are changing traditional, male-dominated management models. Declaring the Era of Women, Regine celebrates big picture thinkers as well as mindful feelers, a powerful message reinforced by the impressive professional biographies of each subject." --Publishers Weekly (web-exclusive)

"Iron Butterflies is especially essential reading for young women who often fail to appreciate just how hard-won are the opportunities they enjoy today. Nor do they realize, as Ms. Regine points out, that sexual discrimination still exists--as they'll find out when their heads start thudding against the glass ceiling. It's also an important book for men, who need to learn that they've got to get with the program or get out of the way. In fact, if they too adapt some of women's ways in the working world, they may not only find they can breathe a sigh of relief, but, in the long run, achieve more success....The word 'inspiring' is tossed around way too frequently. But in its depiction of the hardships that many of these women endured, sometimes from their earliest ages, and their emotional resilience and flexibility, this book inspires." --Russ Wellen, The Huffington Post

About the Author
Birute Regine (Cambridge, MA), a developmental psychologist, is a partner in Harvest Associates, a writing and consulting company, which she founded with her husband, Roger Lewin. She conducts workshops across the country, speaks at business and women’s conferences and colleges, offers life and executive coaching, and writes books and articles. She is the coauthor with Roger Lewin of the critically acclaimed The Soul at Work: Embracing Complexity Science for Business Success (reissued in paperback with the title Weaving Complexity and Business: Engaging the Soul at Work).

Most helpful customer reviews

7 of 7 people found the following review helpful.
Join together to help change the world
By Douglas M. Bowman
I found Iron Butterflies, Women Transforming Themselves and the World beautifully written and extremely enlightening. Birute interviewed a diverse group of women around the world who told amazing stories of challenges and struggles and the ways they overcame them. These stories, along with an obvious amount of research, helped me better understand how we, as a gender, went from being worshipped as goddesses in the earliest of times to being stripped of all power and influence by male domination. Please understand that this is not a male bashing book. In fact, Birute shows great empathy towards men. That being said, this book describes how women lead differently than most men by using inherent traits such as vulnerability and feminine power. I personally liked the number of statistics that show the positive effects this way of leading creates: greater profitability, a better working environment, etc. I admire the women who have taken a stand to change the rules in order to get ahead in business and the world. The game has changed and Iron Butterflies are leading the way.

6 of 6 people found the following review helpful.
Iron Butterflies Soar!
By Lit Lover
I read this book with boundless delight. For anyone who thinks this book is for women only, think again. Every leader or aspiring leader--and aren't we all leaders in some portion of your lives?--will benefit from the amazing stories of powerful women who can lead with force yet retain their essential human vulnerability. It offers both insightful "how to" lessons and an inspirational message. If enough people read this book and take its message to heart, the Earth will become a more peaceful planet. I have not read a more well-written and engaging book in years.

5 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
If You Only Read One Book This Year...
By Katz Creative, Inc.
Seriously, if you want to read "the ultimate book" that can empower you in 2010 and beyond, make it this one, Iron Butterflies. The term is overused but this book is life changing. The author has succeeded in creating a roadmap to healing our world. Every page was an Aha! experience. I also believe the 60 women interviewed were well chosen. They range from women who have successfully scaled the heights in corporate America or run their own businesses to an aboriginal elder in Perth, Australia who observed: "Women hold the wisdom, men hold the love." Wow...how is that for a breakthrough insight that goes beyond conventional thinking!

However Birute Regine accomplished it, these women and the author herself generously share their vulnerabilities in order to candidly report on what it means to be a successful woman today. Birute makes a cogent argument for the fact that, given the mess men have made of things, the time is right (right now) for women as a gender to take over on a broad scale as leaders, locally and globally.

I have heard that "Iron Butterfly" chapters and book discussion groups are springing up around the country. I sure hope so and am joining the first one I find! READ THIS BOOK! Then give it to every woman you know...I sure am!

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Ayurvedic Healing: Contemporary Maharishi Ayurveda Medicine and Science Second Edition, by Hari Sharma, Christopher S. Clark

Ayurveda is one of the World's oldest and most comprehensive systems of natural medicine, and is particularly useful for addressing the chronic conditions Western medicine finds difficult to treat. This authoritative book provides a comprehensive introduction to Ayurvedic medicine for the practitioner or student.

The authors describe the foundations and principles of Maharishi Ayurveda in detail, and drawing on the latest scientific research into its efficacy, show what it can offer clinical medicine in the West. Topics covered include pathogenesis and diagnosis, diet and digestion, toxic build-up, purification therapies, the effects of the emotions and thinking on health, and the practical applications of Transcendental Meditation. This updated and expanded second edition describes specific Ayurvedic treatments for a range of common medical conditions, and also contains information on more general Vedic approaches to health and wellbeing.

This book will provide complementary and alternative health practitioners with a solid base on which to build their understanding of Maharishi Ayurveda, and will also be of interest to mainstream health professionals wishing to learn more about the efficacy of this ancient healthcare system.

  • Sales Rank: #782218 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2011-10-15
  • Released on: 2011-10-15
  • Format: Kindle eBook

Review
Praise for the first edition: 'Contemporary Ayurveda offers a well-organized, impressively-documented introduction to current Ayurvedic practice. Sharma and Clark are to be congratulated for their superb description and analysis of Ayurvedic research. Healing arts practitioners seeking to understand Ayurvedic principles and practice will find this text to be an excellent starting point.' -- Journal of Alternative and Complementary Medicine

About the Author
Hari M. Sharma MD DABP FCAP FRCPC DABHM is Professor Emeritus and former Director of the Division of Cancer Prevention and Natural Products Research, Department of Pathology, College of Medicine, The Ohio State University; Chairperson of the Integrated Medicine Committee of the American Association of Physicians of Indian Origin; and has been named a Fellow of the National Academy of Ayurveda by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India. Christopher S. Clark MD is a Clinical Psychiatrist and was Director of the Maharishi Ayurveda Health Center at the Raj Health Resort in Fairfield, Iowa. He was a founding faculty member and Assistant Clinical Professor of Physiology at the College of Maharishi Vedic Medicine, Maharishi University of Management in Fairfield, Iowa. Marc S. Micozzi, MD, PhD is the founder and director of the Policy Institute for Integrative Medicine at Thomas Jefferson University Hospital. He is a former Executive Director of the College of Physicians and Director of the National Museum of Health and Medicine.

Most helpful customer reviews

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Great compliment to my studies
By Barbara
This is a fantastic companion book to my Ayurvedic texts for school. Great for beginner and as reference for the practitioner, a great way to educate clients.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
I recommend!
By Alessandro Fernande
Very detailed view of Ayurveda with many comparisons with Western medicine view.
I recommend.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Very informative. Helpful.
By Observer
Very informative. Helpful.

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Kamis, 25 Desember 2014

^^ PDF Ebook Elusive Peace: How Modern Diplomatic Strategies Could Better Resolve World Conflicts, by Douglas E. Noll

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Elusive Peace: How Modern Diplomatic Strategies Could Better Resolve World Conflicts, by Douglas E. Noll

This in-depth analysis goes behind the headlines to understand why crucial negotiations fail. The author argues that diplomats often enter negotiations with flawed assumptions about human behavior, sovereignty, and power. Essentially, the international community is using a model of European diplomacy dating back to the 18th century to solve the complex problems of the 21st century.

Through numerous examples, the author shows that the key failure in current diplomatic efforts is the entrenched belief that nations, through their representatives, will act rationally to further their individual political, economic, and strategic interests. However, the contemporary scientific understanding of how people act and see their world does not support this assumption. On the contrary, research from decision-making theory, behavioral economics, social neuropsychology, and current best practices in mediation indicate that emotional and irrational factors often have as much, if not more, to do with the success or failure of a mediated solution.

Reviewing a wide range of conflicts and negotiations, Noll demonstrates that the best efforts of negotiators often failed because they did not take into account the deep-seated values and emotions of the disputing parties. In conclusion, Noll draws on his own long experience as a professional mediator to describe the process of building trust and creating a climate of empathy that is the key to successful negotiation and can go a long way toward resolving even seemingly intractable conflicts.


From the Hardcover edition.

  • Sales Rank: #1440808 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2011-04-01
  • Released on: 2011-04-01
  • Format: Kindle eBook

Review
"It is increasingly clear that traditional military and diplomatic methods for resolving global conflicts cannot work. In Elusive Peace, Douglas Noll not only shows us why, with explanations ranging from neuropsychology to philosophy and political analysis, he points us to morally meaningful solutions. This is a compelling, exciting, eye-opening read that will make you think, and think again." --Kenneth Cloke, president of Mediators Beyond Borders, author of Conflict Revolution: Mediating Evil, War, Injustice, and Terrorism.

"If you are a Mediator or Peace Builder, this is one book to keep by your side and on your desk at all times. Use it to give yourself a reality check when you're in danger of slipping into comfortable sentimentality or irrational exuberance over the essential goodness, intelligence, or rationality of human beings.

"Douglas Noll is no peacenik who stumbled his way into peace building after drinking the purple Kool-Aid. He is above all a realist. His book is a clear exposition of how sustainable peace can only be achieved through unsentimental critical thinking, a sophisticated understanding of human society and behavior, and expert facilitation of the conflict resolution process." --Ashok Panikkar, founder and executive director of Meta-Culture Consulting, South Asia's first professional conflict resolution and dialogue center

"Douglas Noll artfully provides a cogent and compelling case for recognizing the 'international diplomatic mediator' as a distinct specialization within the field of mediation. While acknowledging the fact that most heads of state and career diplomats may be highly skilled in their fields, Noll laments that they, as a class, lack the most rudimentary skills to successfully effect conflict resolution on the world stage. His thoughtful book suggests instead that the stakes involved in many world conflicts are so high that they should rather be placed in the capable hands of properly equipped, experienced, professional mediators." --Neil Carmichael, vice president of Education & Training, American Arbitration Association University

About the Author
Douglas E. Noll, JD, MA (Clovis, CA), lawyer turned peacemaker, is a professional mediator, specializing in difficult, complex, and intractable conflicts. He has been voted as one of the Best Lawyers in America since 2005 by bestlawyers.com for his work in conflict resolution and mediation and is AV-rated by Martindale Hubbell, given to the top 1 percent of the lawyers in the United States. Mr. Noll is host of The Doug Noll Show, an Internet radio show streamed live every Thursday evening from 7-8 pm Pacific on wsRadio.com and is a nationally recognized author, speaker, trainer, and lecturer on the topics of mediation, peacemaking, ethics, and leadership. Mr. Noll is also the author of Sex, Politics, and Religion at the Office (coauthored with John Boogaert); "The Neuropsychology of Conflict," chapter 3 in The Psychology of Resolving Global Conflicts, edited by M. Fitzduff and C.E. Stout; and Peacemaking: Practicing at the Intersection of Law and Human Conflict.

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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Elusive Peace
By GNN
Elusive Peace
Author: Douglas E. Noll

Reviewed by G. Noah Newmark

Elusive Peace is an insightful and, ultimately, persuasive prescription for conflict identification and resolution, that is, "peace", written by someone who has practiced and refined replicable techniques.

I say "ultimately" because, depending on the depth of cynicism of the reader, Doug Noll, the author, has to find a way to do the very thing that is lacking in most conflict situations - communicate a common premise.

Noll does this. In addition to being a master mediator, he is a very good story-teller; and he uses this skill to advantage. Further, in the situations he has selected, combined with the way he has structured the book, he artfully builds his case:

In most instances, conflicts can be understood beyond self-serving purposes; and, regardless of how "evil" one, both, or all, of the adversaries, resolution is possible.

For those too much invested in denying the possibilities for peace, the book should none-the-less be an interesting political argument, implicitly challenging those readers with the consequences of accepting, or fomenting, unresolved conflict.

Whether a practitioner, current or potential, on a geo-political or economic scale; or an individual transferring global skill to personal practice, this is a valuable and enjoyable book!

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
What "Peace" Needs!
By Robert Rail
"Elusive Peace" is a must read for anyone who has to deal with other people. Every day of our lives, in almost every interaction we have with someone else, we are "negotiating". If we realize how many things we do "on a daily basis" that are negotiated, perhaps, like the author, we will start to realize the flawed logic so many of our professional mediators are using.
I clearly remember my first assignment with the International Police Task Force in Bosnia. I was as brand new as my uniform and was in the advantageous position of knowing all there was to know because of my extensive police background from the states; I was soon to learn how naive and poorly prepared I was at dealing with any negotiations or mediations, let alone in the international arena of war.
It seemed like a very simple matter to resolve to me at the moment. One side of this continuing conflict wanted to visit the graves of their loved ones on the far side of the river; the other side wanted to visit their churches that were located on the opposite side of the river. I remember looking at my fellow officer- an older, more experience colleague who had been through foreign negotiations before and thinking out loud, "This will be done before lunch." The older officer just put his hand on my shoulder and said, "Crossing a raging river is less of a threat than the hate these people have for each other my young friend". Unfortunately, he was to be proved right every hour of every day we tried to intercede to stop the bloodshed between them. Both sides were determined to pray to stop the violence, but neither side could move beyond the venomous hate that permeated the very air we breathed in the meeting room. Their emotions consumed all rational negotiation.
As the older officer and I became closer colleagues he shared his hard earned philosophy with me. "When I was young I sought out the answers to life's questions, but now, after the years have come and gone I have learned to seek out the right questions to ask." I asked him about war and without hesitation but with a heavy sigh he said "War is the failure of negotiation". I asked him, how long we keep futilely trying to mediate, and he said, "We never stop trying to bring oil and water together...It is better to spill tea at the negotiation table than blood on the ground". Somehow I felt dedicated to a pointless endeavor.
Trying to negotiate at the privileged level meetings went no better. The rooms were nicer, the furniture was more luxurious, the food and drink was improved, but the results remained the same. It didn't matter if they were peasants or governmental royalty filled with arrogant ignorance and ceremonial strutting around the conference room with their selected staff. Emotion always trumped reason and most negotiations ended in futility.
Reading this book filled me with many mixed emotions. I was filled with sadness and regret that I didn't have the opportunity to know the lessons, insights and perspectives contained in this book when I embarked on my first war zone mission. From Bosnia, and then on to Kosovo, and then to so many other places in the world that were so very different but had so much in common as this book has shown me. But now, I am also optimistic because someone has written a book explaining why people react the way they do during negotiations and perhaps, just perhaps, the professional people trying to make this world a more peaceful place will finally find a way to successfully negotiate peace.
Please read "Elusive Peace" by Douglas E. Noll. Our world will be a better place for it.
Robert R. Rail
"Surviving the International War Zone"

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
A Review of Elusive Peace
By Rick Love
Douglas E. Noll's Elusive Peace: How Modern Diplomatic Strategies Could Better Resolve World Conflicts provides a profound overview of the field of peacemaking. The heart of the book, though, is his rigorous critique of diplomatic peacemaking methods and robust apologetic for the importance of emotions in peacemaking. Noll's detailed illustrations and solid research make this one of the best books I've read this year!

Noll gives a helpful historical analysis of "old school" diplomatic assumptions and practices referred to as "rational-choice theory." He points out that modern diplomats lack an understanding of the latest scientific research as it relates to peacemaking:

"New discoveries in behavioral economics, cognitive and social neuroscience, and social psychology have demonstrated that emotions weave through our every thought, decision, and action. To paraphrase neuroscientist Antonio Damasio, we are 98 percent emotional and 2 percent rational. We are not nearly as rational as we think we are" (p. 22).

Here is one good example of his critique of modern diplomatic approaches to mediation:

"The problem with having political personalities acting as `mediators' is that they do not know how to design a mediation process, how to engage the parties to the conflict, how to prepare parties for a mediated negotiation, how to facilitate meetings where strong emotions are present, how to deal with prospective impasse, or how to bring a variety of processes and techniques to bear on the normal issues that arise in any complex problem-solving negotiation" (p. 34).

Noll is a lawyer-turned-peacemaker (and a martial artist!) who acknowledges that feelings are a crucial dimension of peacemaking. He explains what most of us know from our own experience with conflict: emotions can hinder conflict resolution.

"The one thing I have learned in mediating thousands of conflicts and disputes is that when people fight, emotions dominate reason. If people in the fight cannot work through their emotions, negotiating an agreement or solution is generally impossible" (p. 98).

But there is a lot more about the centrality of emotions in conflict resolution than this conventional wisdom. Here are two fascinating scientific insights that Noll uses to argue his case. First, the innate human biological fear-response system is found in the two small, almond-shaped structures in the brain called the amygdala. They comprise an early warning system so that we are capable of responding to threats in the environment quickly and without conscious thought (p. 155). Our emotions, especially fear, have biological triggers.

Second, I was also interested to learn about Oxytocin. Oxytocin is a chemical humans produce that reduces stress responses in conflict and significantly increases positive communication (p. 189) - another biological fact that impacts our emotions. "Thus," Noll concludes, "we are not rational beings with feelings; we are feeling beings with the ability to think rational thoughts" (p. 280).

So how do we effectively address emotions to resolve conflict? While peacemaking is a complex, demanding endeavor, a few things dominate Noll's approach. First, he puts a strong emphasis on careful, sensitive listening, not only to words, but also emotional data and body language. Skilled mediators listen at multiple levels.

Second, having the different parties share their stories is a powerful way to build bridges. Storytelling increases empathy for the other and de-escalates emotions. "Empirical evidence and deep experience suggest that storytelling is the only way through the maze" (p. 80). It is "the core of a twenty-first century approach to international negotiation" (p. 101).

I do have one critique of the book. A detailed table of contents would make this valuable resource a much more powerful tool. The sub-sections of the book need to be noted in the table of contents so students of peacemaking can have quick and easy access to the data.

But students of peace should not wait for a revised edition of the book! You can get it on amazon right now. I believe that if you read and apply Noll's suggestions, peace will not be so elusive.

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Rabu, 24 Desember 2014

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The 2013 Import and Export Market for Overhead Traveling Cranes on Fixed Support in Poland, by Icon Group International

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On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on overhead traveling cranes on fixed support in Poland face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying overhead traveling cranes on fixed support to Poland? How important is Poland compared to others in terms of the entire global and regional market? How much do the imports of overhead traveling cranes on fixed support vary from one country of origin to another in Poland? On the supply side, Poland also exports overhead traveling cranes on fixed support. Which countries receive the most exports from Poland? How are these exports concentrated across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and import/export managers who are concerned with the market for overhead traveling cranes on fixed support in Poland. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for overhead traveling cranes on fixed support for those countries serving Poland via exports, or supplying from Poland via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where Poland fits into the world market for imported and exported overhead traveling cranes on fixed support. The total level of imports and exports on a worldwide basis, and those for Poland in particular, is estimated using a model which aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a number of competitive countries of

  • Published on: 2013-01-01
  • Released on: 2013-01-01
  • Original language: English
  • Dimensions: 10.25" h x .6" w x 8.00" l,
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 26 pages

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Sabtu, 20 Desember 2014

? Download Walking Boston: 34 Tours Through Beantown's Cobblestone Streets, Historic Districts, Ivory Towers and Bustling Waterfront, by Robert Todd

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Walking Boston: 34 Tours Through Beantown's Cobblestone Streets, Historic Districts, Ivory Towers and Bustling Waterfront, by Robert Todd



Walking Boston: 34 Tours Through Beantown's Cobblestone Streets, Historic Districts, Ivory Towers and Bustling Waterfront, by Robert Todd

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Walking Boston: 34 Tours Through Beantown's Cobblestone Streets, Historic Districts, Ivory Towers and Bustling Waterfront, by Robert Todd

Boston is a walker’s town. It’s as clear as the brick red path marking the Freedom Trail, the bright blue signs of the Harborwalk, and the green of the Emerald Necklace series of parks. Boston’s nearly 400-year history has led to the development of hidden neighborhoods, historic sites, and iconic parks that tempt both Bostonians and visitors out onto the sidewalks, paths, and trails lacing this close-knit city. In addition, the Big Dig project, which helped revive downtown and the waterfront by moving Interstate 93 underground, has created an energy and excitement that has driven projects like the Harborwalk and the Rose Fitzgerald Kennedy Greenway. Walking Boston offers the best of Boston’s new and old rambles. This portable guide features detailed maps, original photos, and public transportation information for every trip. Route summaries make each walk easy to follow, and a “Points of Interest” section summarizes each walk’s highlights.

  • Sales Rank: #1140988 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2013-10-01
  • Released on: 2013-10-01
  • Format: Kindle eBook

Review
"Each walk is designed to incorporate the new and old, the natural and man-made. View Boston as you never have before — on foot."
—Jessica Chmara, Boston Forward

From the Author
This new edition features a few new walks, including great ones in Belmont Hill and on Deer Island. We've also revised the entire book, adding new restaurants and sites.

From the Inside Flap
San Francisco has Nob Hill, Manhattan has Park Avenue, and London has Belgravia—neighborhoods where heritage, architecture, and money are inextricably linked. For Boston, it’s Beacon Hill, a maze of cobblestone streets and well-kept row houses arranged along Beacon Hill between Storrow Drive and the State House. The neighborhood is a National Historic District, an elite enclave of privilege, and a vibrant community—all in one. It’s the type of place where you can live just down the street from both the Museum of African American History and John Kerry.

Beacon Hill comes alive in early spring when window boxes and flowering pear trees explode into color. And if a passing thundershower forces you to duck into one of the many good cafes or shops along Charles St., so much the better. If you take this walk at dusk, you’ll appreciate the gas lamps throughout Beacon Hill that still burn 24 hours a day. The lamps are just one of the many details, like brass door knockers and ornate ironwork, which give Beacon Hill its considerable charm.

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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Reasonable tour suggestsion, but over priced for what you get.
By Gary S.
This is more like a simple trip outline, than a real tour. It tells you which paths to take (streets, etc.) and itemizes what will be there, but doesn't provide much detail that could build enthusiasm before you go. At half the price, I would have given it more stars.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Great book for Boston dwellers
By Anne Drapalski
Gave this to my son and fiance who live in Boston and have a lot of visitors wanting to do the traditional tours. This gives other options and keeps it interesting for the hosts.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Short walking tours
By Kenneth R. Scott
My wife and I were asked to lead various short walking trips around Boston. I got this book and it is admirably suited to our purpose.

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Jumat, 19 Desember 2014

~ Free PDF No Need of Sympathy (American Poets Continuum), by Fleda Brown

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No Need of Sympathy (American Poets Continuum), by Fleda Brown

No Need of Sympathy is an exceptionally wide-ranging poetry collection, touching on contemporary science, physics, family, politics, and the natures of poetry and reality. These poems, the eighth collection by Fleda Brown, ask huge questions; they zero in like a microscope on what’s here, at hand. They are spoken with humility, great humor, curiosity, and a deep love of living.

  • Sales Rank: #1849378 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2013-09-09
  • Released on: 2013-09-09
  • Format: Kindle eBook

Review

Washington Independent Review of Books 'February Exemplar'

"Brown’s poetry “reads the way a dream feels … There are so many wonderfully thoughtful – beautiful – pieces here: a collection of very personal sonnets to her grandchildren … homages to old family photos … remembering desperate, deceitful students … There are close to fifty poems here, and they all are simply wonderful …" -Library Thing

“This slender volume feels like a coffee table art book. It has that kind of weight. It’s images rise from each page gradually…” -The Broadkill Review

“In every move she makes, she works the extremes in poetry, to combine passive thoughts and active situations to create a polarizing tension of intellectual excitement. In poetry, our thinking comes first – then with Brown, come the complications and layers. Her brand is weaving disparate thought forms. Sylvia Plath called poetry ‘a tyrannical art.’ Brown is meticulous at it. For her, nothing but the best will do.” -Washington Independent Review of Books

“Reading a poem by Brown is a lesson in how to read one’s life, how each small thing, each seemingly casual detail, is in fact connected to perceptions and understandings of profound significance that we can all divine if only we calm our vision enough to fully experience the perishing present.” -World Literature Today

"throughout this fine book, Brown sweeps a seine net through what might seem like only loosely-schooling facts of the world, but through each poem’s intelligent movement and construction, the vibrant connections emerge....Brown’s work insists that the poetry of the earth—that is to say, poetry itself—is ceasing never”-Miramar Poetry Journal

About the Author
Fleda Brown’s memoir Driving With Dvorák was published in 2010 by the University of Nebraska Press. Her six collections of poems have won a Pushcart Prize, the Felix Pollak Prize, the Philip Levine Prize, the Great Lakes Colleges New Writer’s Award, and have twice been a finalist for the National Poetry Series. Brown's poems have appeared in Poetry, Kenyon Review, Southern Poetry Review, American Poetry Review, The Georgia Review, and many other journals and anthologies, and they have been used as texts for several prize-winning musical compositions performed at Eastman School of Music, Yale University, and by the Pittsburgh New Music Ensemble. She is professor emerita at the University of Delaware, and former poet laureate of Delaware. She now lives in Traverse City, Michigan, and is on the faculty of the Rainier Writing Workshop, a low-residency MFA program in Tacoma, Washington.

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3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Thoughtful, beautiful writing. Highly recommended
By Timothy J. Bazzett
Poetry has a tendency to intimidate me, maybe because I often wonder, "Am I really 'getting' this stuff?" It's probably a carryover from all those badly taught English classes in which, as students, we were forced to find the "meaning" of each poem. Remember? Fleda Brown was an English professor for many years, and I'll bet she didn't do that to her students. But there is something about Brown's newest collection, NO NEED OF SYMPATHY, that keeps me coming back to ponder these poems (or "pomes," as we used to call them as kids) over and over again, and each time they seem to mean a little more. And I think, maybe I AM 'getting' them, or at least partially.

There's this odd one in here called "The Kayak and the Eiffel Tower" that I've read over and over again, with its image of Brown in her kayak, as it "slides trough the water and the paddle / goes on one side and then the other ..." And there are these flashing half-remembered fragments of memory from when she was very small, walking with her mother, "the sidewalk rough / the way a child remembers the sidewalk: closer / than it will ever be again ..." And she wonders about these vague memory flashes as she paddles, of her mother's anger, maybe at her father's infidelity "his postcard ... from that woman in the Philippines, back when / he was a soldier ..." A memory so hazy, so questionable "it was like the Eiffel tower, all filigree / and lace ..."

It reads the way a dream feels. I read this poem one night just before sleep, and I actually dreamed of the Eiffel tower that night, part of a confusing collage of images from my own life past and present, as dreams so often are. Powerful stuff, dreams and poems.

Particularly resonant in these times is the poem, "Here, In Silence, Are Eight More," beginning with "Night after night the photos of dead soldiers / go by on the News Hour like playing cards while we drink / our wine ..." The war poets Owen, Brooke and Sassoon are invoked, as well as the children's book, unnamed, but obviously MAKE WAY FOR DUCKLINGS.

"... Our soldier floats like a duck. Like a night flight
casket. In the photo his eyes straight forward, being all
they can be ... One snapshot in time ..."

That army recruiting slogan, "Be all you can be," coupled here with a casket, and a photo of a heartbreakingly young face, "His death rests / like a quarter in the pocket, a sure thing ..." This is a poem that makes me weep - or rage: against the military machine and an indifferent populace that tacitly condone such senseless carnage.

Another poem which moved me nearly to tears, probably because my own late mother is still so much on my mind, is "Building a Cathedral," which begins with Gaudi's unfinished cathedral in Barcelona, but quickly moves to the poet's own father, 92, filling his days with pointless activity, because nothing "matters to my father anymore, which I notice is a frequent / condition of extreme age ..." She sees overtones of Becket's WAITING FOR GODOT in her father's life. "... On the phone / he tells me he'd rather be dead if it wouldn't hurt ..." My own mother once told me the exact same thing just a few weeks before she died, alone, at 96. Yes, so very many people who have watched aged parents decline and die will recognize themselves here. And will probably weep.

There are so many wonderfully thoughtful - beautiful - pieces here: a collection of very personal sonnets to her grandchildren ("The Grandmother Sonnets"), homages to old family photos ("Photo of Us on the Cottage Front Porch"), remembering desperate, deceitful students "whose grandmothers die / and die again, just before holidays." ("Michigan"). Or, "Child labor" which "is desperately sought by both the manufacturers / and the starving children. Morality is another one of those words." In "Memorial Day" Brown muses about the terrible fragility of life and the randomness of death.

But I better stop. There are close to fifty poems here, and they all are simply wonderful. And I think they've taught me something, and it's this: there is never just one correct "meaning" for any poem worth its salt. There will be, in fact, as many meanings as there are readers. Fleda Brown's poems have their own lives. They are pieces from not just her life, but from all of our lives. They are timeless. NO NEED OF SYMPATHY takes its title from the poet Robert Creeley, who wrote: "Poetry stands in no need of any sympathy, or even goodwill." Brown's poems here bear this out. Highly recommended.

- Tim Bazzett, author of the memoir, BOOKLOVER

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
A slim book with a mighty message.
By Kristin Henry
I may be slightly prejudiced here, because Fleda Brown was a mentor of mine, so I knew her as a poet as well as a mentor. I can't help but quote one of the poems midway through this book, just to give you an idea of what it's like. "Pointillism"

before the camera, there were portraits/ and landscapes to show how it was, but that wasn't how it was.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Beautiful, Intelligent, and Full of Heart
By Erin Hollowell
Fleda Brown's latest collection of poetry No Need of Sympathy is filled with poems that are at once intelligent and full of heart. Her subjects range widely, but Brown traverses them all with a deft hand. These aren't just poems charged with emotion, they are charged with the depth and breadth of a life lived with open eyes. Gorgeous!

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