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Ben Emons explains why government debt is no longer "risk free"--and how you can evaluate alternatives to invest your money accordingly
A timely alert to the fundamental changes taking place in today's global economic and financial systems. The book discusses why there is no longer a true risk free rate, how this will impact risk premiums, financial and real asset valuations, what would be the future risk free rate and how you should invest your money as a result.
- Sales Rank: #2056653 in eBooks
- Published on: 2013-06-21
- Released on: 2013-06-21
- Format: Kindle eBook
Review
The book is "The End of the Risk- Free Rate." Warning, math warning, it has got some
sophisticated charts, but it is easy to read. There is all sorts of kurtosis in this book and I love the
quadratic idea of the chart figure 4.6.--Thomas Keene, Bloomberg Surveillance
"Ben Emons---why do you say the risk free rate has ended? Does that mean every textbook has to be rewritten?" --Gregg Greenberg, TheStreet.com See interview: thestreet.com/story/11947364/1/quick-take-rip-risk-free-rate.html
"Risk-free government debt [is] disappearing....Ben Emons dives into this important, urgent, and unpredictable new reality"---Sara Eisen, Bloomberg Television "Surveillance" and "Market Makers"
June 20 (Bloomberg) -- Author Ben Emons discusses his new
book, 'The End of the Risk-Free Rate: Investing When Structural
Forces Change Government Debt'. The book says there is no longer
a true "risk-free" rate on government bonds. He examines the
consequences for investors. Emons speaks with Bloomberg's
Kathleen Hays and Vonnie Quinn on Bloomberg Radio's "The Hays
Advantage."
CNBC Talking Numbers--Ben Emons, recently authored a book titled, "The End of the Risk Free Rate". He talks with Talking Numbers about the more practical aspects of where opportunities may lie in this current economic climate.
finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking-numbers/portfolio-manager-why-money-isn-t-safe-232130505.html
From the Author
The End of The Risk Free Rate discusses how to look at the investing world in a different way. The "risk free rate" is a feature of a fiat currency system where a reference or benchmark is used to value financial assets.
The 2008 financial crisis and subsequent European sovereign crisis of 2010-2012 has shown what was once assumed to be a stable investment like a T-bill or government bond has become a volatile instrument with credit characteristics. This may have changed the way risk premiums should be evaluated.
When looking at the risk free rate, it has components that were not thought of prior to the 2008 crisis. Restructuring, social-political developments, private sector involvement, financial repression, and interest rate volatility are elements of a "new risk free rate". Investors should be aware of these elements when evaluating corporate, municipal, mortgage backed, high yield bonds as well as equities. The risk premium earned is perhaps at a different level and this book shows with practical examples a quantification.
Another implication is there are no "alternative" risk free rates. Often said that as government bonds are less appealing due to low returns, there are alternatives like corporate bonds or emerging market sovereign debt perceived to be "safer". This book demonstrates with extensive analysis that is not the case and how investors should use this information when judging investments.
The End of the Risk Free Rate does not mean the end of investing in bonds. The book makes neither the case that bonds are no longer suitable investments. On the contrary, The End of the Risk Free Rate provides a framework and practical analysis investors can arm themselves with to better understand the complexity of the investment universe that is functioning no longer on the premise of something that is "risk free".
I hope you will enjoy reading my second book.
Sincerely
Ben Emons
Author of "The Financial Domino Effect" and "The End of the Risk Free Rate"
From the Inside Flap
Our financial system is built upon two premises. It is a fiat currency system that is comprised of free floating currencies backed by a paper standard, the reserve currency. The dominant factor is the US dollar at which many currencies are valued against. The other feature is financial assets valued of a benchmark, a reference rate dubbed as the "risk free rate". Whether one looks at finance such as the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) or at investment grade securities, in general a "risk free rate" is an important assumption. The financial crisis of 2008 may have changed the way the global financial system operated. For one, the direct influence on asset prices by global central banks has been unprecedented. Another reason is that it has long been assumed there was a "risk-free instrument", like a Treasury bill or a government bond. They were viewed as boring instruments with a low return because they are public goods. The onset of the financial crisis saw large guarantees by governments of their financial systems, and as economies fell into a deep recession, automatic stabilizers as well as additional fiscal stimulus increased governments' total debt. What was normally considered as a steady, boring investment became a volatile instrument with credit risk characteristics.
Most helpful customer reviews
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
A Important Book about Risk and the Markets
By Marianne Goodell
Global financial markets experienced extraordinary turbulence from 2008 until just recently. It is all too tempting to forget the lessons of those years, particularly in Europe. As Spanish government bonds yields fall and London property prices rise, let’s not forget how close we were to the financial precipice. One lesson, to me and to the author, is that we now have to question the safety of even the perceived-to-be safest government debt obligations. We have to ask “What is the capacity of my government to keep issuing new bonds at manageable cost ?” With the perspective of a large and important investor during this period, Emons explains not only how markets functioned (or didn’t) through the crisis but also how governments and central banks were forced to respond with short-term solutions to restore liquidity and confidence, and quickly. He draws on a wealth of information and demonstrates a deep understanding of economics and market mechanisms. As opposed to many other books written about the last 5-6 years in the financial world, Emons doesn’t dwell on personalities or harsh criticisms; rather, he provides a highly objective overview of the subject matter. I particularly liked Chapter 5, entitled “Where and What to Invest In: The ‘Alternatives.’” His explanation of covered bonds should be required reading for those looking for more options in the high grade bond universe. This book probably appeals best to those with some understanding of international bond markets and/or economics but I found it highly accessible nonetheless.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Well-written and highly informative. I recommend it.
By Voracious Reader
Ben Emons is an articulate, well-informed market practitioner that understands not only the drivers of today’s markets but also where opportunities exist for investors. This work is an important read for any investor, whether that person is a do-it-yourself individual or a highly sophisticated institutional manager.
In The End of the Risk Free Rate, Emons expands on his previous work by doing a deep dive into concerns and opportunities faced by investors in today’s post-financial crisis environment. In the first half of this book, Emons covers one of the most concerning market developments, which is the end of the risk free rate. Other issues Emons covers are the breakdown of the relationship between inflation and employment, the possible drivers of future lackluster US economic growth, and the risk of future sovereign defaults.
In the second half of this book, Emons answers the questions: what does this all mean for investors and what should we do about it? He begins by reviewing some more academic concerns, such as the market’s implied forward expectations for front-end rates. He then moves on to a more practitioner-focused review of alternative asset classes, and the risks and opportunities they pose to investors.
I found this book to be an informative well-written review of relevant issues facing investors. I highly recommend this book.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Must read for both personal investors and finance professionals...
By shelby E Luke
The End of the Risk-Free Rate is a concise, user-friendly manual for financial markets experiencing regime changes. The textbook definition of a risk-free rate – the return on a “money-good” investment with a known outcome – has been tested by turmoil and crises. Emons’ walks his readers through the causes and effects of regime change and investor psychology in an accessible and thought-provoking manner. By examining trends in productivity, technology, and employment, The End of the Risk-Free Rate shows readers the tools used by policy-makers and investors to identify equilibrium riskless rates. After presenting an overview of historical Fed policy alongside private sector involvement, Emons offers parallel anecdotes from troubled European and Latin American countries.
The investment implications are vast: how does one value “risky” securities like stocks and corporate bonds when nothing is truly “risk-free”? What happens when the tools used by central banks create “sticky” price action within the securities they purchase? The End of the Risk Free Rate presents several explanations from decades of professors and policymakers.
Emons’ book serves as a relevant and approachable reference for both personal investors and finance professionals.
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